About this project
CommunityScale led a Regional Housing and Transportation Study for the Central Massachusetts Regional Planning Commission (CMRPC), serving Worcester and 39 surrounding communities in Worcester County. In partnership with Toole Design, the study provides a data-driven framework for understanding how housing and transportation challenges intersect across the region and identifies strategies to align housing policy with mobility networks for better planning at local and regional scales. The project produced an interactive map tool to provide access to analyses at the parcel level of detail, including housing and transportation cost burden and development suitability.
In a largely car-dependent region, where people live directly shapes their transportation costs, access to jobs and services, and quality of life. The study analyzes conditions across six subregions to identify where housing and transportation investments can work together to create more connected, affordable, and resilient communities.
How is the job market changing?
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001 LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) · Block crosswalk, Jobs by workplace block
- Geography NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Job growth
Total job counts over time show how employment opportunities are growing or shrinking in a community. Comparing across geographies reveals which areas are attracting the most new employment.
Jobs grouped into four broad sector categories show the economic composition of a community.
Wage ranges for common occupations show how local pay compares across sectors. Bars show the 25th to 75th percentile annual salary range, with the median marked.
Job counts are derived from the LEHD LODES Workplace Area Characteristics (WAC) dataset published by the US Census Bureau.
How is the population changing?
- Census Population Estimates Program (PEP) · 2010–2025
- ACS 5-year estimates · B01001 · 2010–2024
- CommunityScale population projection model
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Population forecast summary CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
Population growth patterns reveal how communities are evolving. This chart shows historical population changes by age group and projects future trends based on demographic patterns.
Population change since a baseline year, broken out by age group. Each line shows the net gain or loss for one cohort, revealing which groups are driving growth or decline.
The share of households with children indicates family housing demand, while the share with people over 65 reflects the growing need for senior-friendly and accessible housing options.
Historical population comes from the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP): counties directly from PEP's annual estimates by age, and municipalities from PEP sub-county totals with age detail from the American Community Survey (ACS). Projections use CommunityScale's PEP-anchored cohort-migration forecast model.
The model follows each five-year age cohort through the community's 2010–2024 population history and projects those cohort trends forward, launching from the most recent PEP estimate (2025). Group-quarters residents — college dorms, prisons, military barracks, nursing facilities — do not follow household demographics, so they are separated out, projected on their own trend, and added back. In small communities, where year-to-year cohort data is noisy, the model blends each cohort's trend toward the community's recent overall trend to keep projections stable.
Who is entering and leaving the workforce?
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Population forecast by age CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
The share of people aged 25-34 indicates the pipeline of workers entering the labor force, while the share aged 65+ shows the pace of retirement. Comparing these trends reveals whether communities face a tightening or expanding labor supply.
Historical population comes from the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP), with age detail from the American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year estimates for municipalities. Projections use CommunityScale's PEP-anchored cohort-migration forecast model, which projects each age cohort's 2010–2024 trend forward from the most recent PEP estimate.
How affordable is this community?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B19013, B25082, B25090 · 2010–2024
- Zillow ZHVI
- FRED 30-year fixed mortgage rate
- Insurance premium rates (CommunityScale)
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- Federal Reserve FRED 30-Year Mortgage Rate · 30-year mortgage rate
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS CPI-U Inflation Ratios · Consumer price inflation factors
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B19001, B19001A, B19001B +22 more ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 5-Year · Household records, Person records, Puerto Rico household records, Puerto Rico person records Census Address Count Listing · Address counts, December 2025 Census Building Permits Survey · Annual permits by county LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) · Block crosswalk, Jobs by workplace block
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- U.S. Department of the Treasury Homeowners Insurance Premiums by ZIP Code · Premiums by ZIP code
- Zillow Zillow Housing Data · Home values and rents by ZIP code
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Place to county, Tract crosswalk across Census years, ZIP code to ZCTA NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Average homeowners insurance rates, Home values by geography, Household characteristics by income band, Household type by age group +6 more CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
This chart tracks whether housing prices are keeping pace with local incomes. The gap between what homes cost and what households can afford reveals affordability trends over time.
| Geography | Home Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical | Affordable to median | Gap / Surplus | |
| CMRPC Region | $519,038 | $488,265 | -$30,773 |
| North Subregion | $530,035 | $549,445 | +$19,410 |
| Northeast Subregion | $683,140 | $602,314 | -$80,826 |
| Central Subregion | $425,117 | $309,412 | -$115,705 |
| Southeast Subregion | $562,872 | $555,863 | -$7,009 |
| Southwest Subregion | $462,686 | $438,806 | -$23,880 |
| West Subregion | $420,005 | $352,944 | -$67,062 |
Enter your household income and adjust assumptions to see what you could afford to buy in this community, compared to typical local prices. The calculator defaults to the current local median income, mortgage rate, and other financial assumptions factored into the housing affordability chart above.
This chart tracks whether rents are keeping pace with local incomes. The gap between what renters earn and what they need to afford typical rents reveals rental affordability trends over time.
How are households changing by income?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B25007, B01001, B19001, B19113 · 2010–2024
- HUD Income Limits · FY 2025
- BLS CPI-U · 2010–2024
- Census PUMS 5-year · 2019–2023
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS CPI-U Inflation Ratios · Consumer price inflation factors
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B19001, B19113, B25001 +6 more ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 5-Year · Household records, Person records, Puerto Rico household records, Puerto Rico person records Census Address Count Listing · Address counts, December 2025 LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) · Block crosswalk
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- U.S. Department of the Treasury Homeowners Insurance Premiums by ZIP Code · Premiums by ZIP code
- Zillow Zillow Housing Data · Home values and rents by ZIP code
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years, ZIP code to ZCTA NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Average homeowners insurance rates, Home values by geography, Household type by age group, Households by income band +3 more CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
Understanding how households at different income levels are growing or declining helps identify which groups face the greatest housing pressure and where new housing is most needed.
| AMI Group | Income Range | Households |
|---|---|---|
| <30% AMI | <$39K | 51,468 |
| 30-50% AMI | $39K - $66K | 34,366 |
| 50-80% AMI | $66K - $105K | 43,432 |
| 80-100% AMI | $105K - $131K | 23,432 |
| 100-120% AMI | $131K - $157K | 19,577 |
| >120% AMI | >$157K | 65,851 |
Household change since a baseline year, broken out by income group. Each line shows the net gain or loss for one income bracket, revealing which groups are driving household growth or decline.
Who lives here today?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B19001, B19037, B19113, B19131 · 2020–2024
- HUD Income Limits · FY 2025
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B19001, B19001A, B19001B +11 more
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Housing characteristics, Population forecast by age CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
Households may have different structure type preferences depending on characteristics such as household size, income, employment, presence of children, age of individuals, and lifestyle choices. Understanding the housing stock in corresponding terms helps assess how well existing units align with existing households' ideals.
This chart shows how household composition has changed over time, comparing the distribution of household types between 2015 and 2023. Changes in household types can indicate shifting demographics and evolving housing needs in a community.
| Families with Children | Families without Children | Nonfamily Households | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2024 | Change | 2015 | 2024 | Change | 2015 | 2024 | Change | |
| CMRPC Region | 67,622 | 71,689 | +6% | 71,532 | 81,695 | +14% | 69,557 | 80,859 | +16% |
| North Subregion | 5,697 | 5,977 | +5% | 6,897 | 8,140 | +18% | 4,122 | 4,910 | +19% |
| Northeast Subregion | 10,529 | 11,299 | +7% | 10,135 | 11,541 | +14% | 7,020 | 9,174 | +31% |
| Central Subregion | 19,974 | 22,903 | +15% | 19,196 | 22,299 | +16% | 29,406 | 34,299 | +17% |
| Southeast Subregion | 14,797 | 14,538 | -2% | 14,559 | 17,623 | +21% | 10,901 | 12,422 | +14% |
| Southwest Subregion | 11,867 | 12,634 | +6% | 13,427 | 13,992 | +4% | 11,997 | 13,571 | +13% |
| West Subregion | 4,758 | 4,338 | -9% | 7,318 | 8,100 | +11% | 6,111 | 6,483 | +6% |
The demographic profile of a community's households shapes demand for different types of housing. Toggle between views to explore household composition by income group across different demographic dimensions.
Cost burden measures the share of household income spent on housing. Households paying more than 30% are considered cost burdened, while those paying more than 50% are severely cost burdened. Lower-income households typically face the highest rates of cost burden.
Cost burdened households pay 30% or more of their income on housing. Severely cost burdened households pay 50% or more. Tracking these rates over time shows whether affordability is improving or worsening. Toggle between combined (Total), Homeowners, and Renters to see how burden differs by tenure.
How much new housing is being permitted?
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001 Census Building Permits Survey · Annual permits by county, Annual permits by place
- Geography NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
Annual building permits reflect the pipeline of new housing construction. Single family permits show detached home building activity, while multifamily permits (units in buildings with 2+ units) indicate apartment and townhome development. On the region page, each line is one CMRPC subregion summed from its member municipalities.
Cumulative change in jobs, households, and building permits since 2010 reveals whether housing construction is keeping pace with employment and population growth.
Building permit data comes from the US Census Building Permit Survey, 2010-2024. Permits are reported by county and by permit-issuing place (municipality). Subregion totals are summed from member-municipality rows.
When was the housing built?
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau HMDA Loan Application Register (loan-level) · Loan application register (2018 onward)
- Federal Reserve FRED 30-Year Mortgage Rate · 30-year mortgage rate
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS CPI-U Inflation Ratios · Consumer price inflation factors BLS OEWS Wage Percentiles · Wage area definitions, Wages by occupation
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B01002, B01003, B07001 +40 more ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 5-Year · Household records, Person records, Puerto Rico household records, Puerto Rico person records Census Address Count Listing · Address counts, 2020, Address counts, December 2023, Address counts, December 2024, Address counts, December 2025 +4 more Census Building Permits Survey · Annual permits by county, Annual permits by place LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) · Block crosswalk, Jobs by workplace block
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD CDBG Entitlement Communities · CDBG entitlement grantees HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- U.S. Department of the Treasury Homeowners Insurance Premiums by ZIP Code · Premiums by ZIP code
- Zillow Zillow Housing Data · Home values and rents by ZIP code
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Place to county, Tract crosswalk across Census years, ZIP code to ZCTA NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Average homeowners insurance rates, Build Now scenario, Cost burden by income group, Home values by geography +19 more CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
The age of the housing stock reveals construction booms, periods of stagnation, and how much of the community's housing predates modern building codes. The most recent decade uses building permit data for a more current picture of construction activity.
Historical decades use the American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates, table B25034 (Year Structure Built). The 2020s decade uses the US Census Building Permit Survey for a more accurate and up-to-date count of recent construction.
What does the housing stock look like?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B25024, B25032, B25041, B25042 · 2020–2024
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B25024, B25032, B25041 +1 more
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Housing stock, Population forecast by age CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
The mix of housing types and ownership patterns shapes a community's character. This chart breaks down housing units by structure type and whether they're owner-occupied or rented.
Comparing housing stock composition across geographies reveals how communities differ in their mix of structure types, unit sizes, and ownership patterns. Toggle between views and switch between raw counts and percentages to explore the data.
This chart shows rental and homeowner vacancy rates over time. On the CMRPC region page, the lines compare the project's six subregions. On subregion and municipality pages, the chart shows the relevant subregion trend. A healthy rental vacancy rate is around 7.5%, and a healthy homeowner vacancy rate is around 1.5%. Rates well below these thresholds suggest a tight housing market with limited options for people looking to move.
How much new housing supply is needed?
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau HMDA Loan Application Register (loan-level) · Loan application register (2018 onward)
- Federal Reserve FRED 30-Year Mortgage Rate · 30-year mortgage rate
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS CPI-U Inflation Ratios · Consumer price inflation factors BLS OEWS Wage Percentiles · Wage area definitions, Wages by occupation
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B01002, B01003, B07001 +40 more ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 5-Year · Household records, Person records, Puerto Rico household records, Puerto Rico person records Census Address Count Listing · Address counts, 2020, Address counts, December 2023, Address counts, December 2024, Address counts, December 2025 +4 more Census Building Permits Survey · Annual permits by county, Annual permits by place LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) · Block crosswalk, Jobs by workplace block
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD CDBG Entitlement Communities · CDBG entitlement grantees HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- U.S. Department of the Treasury Homeowners Insurance Premiums by ZIP Code · Premiums by ZIP code
- Zillow Zillow Housing Data · Home values and rents by ZIP code
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Place to county, Tract crosswalk across Census years, ZIP code to ZCTA NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Average homeowners insurance rates, Build Now scenario, Cost burden by income group, Home values by geography +19 more CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
To keep up with growth and fill current housing shortages, CMRPC Region needs 14,675 new units over the next 5 years.
| 8,455 |
Units needed to keep up with expected growth
Projected total household growth from 2026 to 2031.
|
| 3.6% |
Projected household growth rate
Expected increase in total households from 238,126 in 2026 to 246,581 in 2031.
|
| 6,220 |
Units to address shortages in existing housing stock
Production needs to address vacancy rates and other factors.
|
| 1,132 |
Replacement housing
Effective annual loss rate is 0.9 per 1,000 units.
|
| 1,539 |
Ownership vacancy adjustment
Owner-occupied vacancy is 0.5%. This is below the minimum stable target of 1.5%.
|
| 3,549 |
Rental vacancy adjustment
Rental vacancy is 3.7%. This is below the minimum stable target of 7.4%.
|
| 14,675 |
Total 5-year housing production need (2026-2031)
|
| 2,935 |
Annual production pace
Average units needed per year to meet 5-year need
|
| 5.9% |
Total housing unit growth
Percent increase in housing stock over 5 years
|
| 1.2% |
Annual housing unit growth
Average percent increase in housing stock per year
|